Sony and Danny Boyle’s post-apocalyptic infected-dead-people revival 28 Years Later opens Friday along with Disney/Pixar’s original sci-fi Elio, which are looking at a global start of $56M and $50M, respectively.
Together with Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s How to Trian Your Dragon, which is expected to hold at No. 1 with a $40M+ second weekend, the three movies look to make around $90M domestic. Broken out, that’s $28M-$30M for 28 Years Later and $20M+ for Elio. While that amount of money doesn’t equal the massive second-weekend take of Inside Out 2 a year ago ($101.2M), consider the two wide entries a further deepening of the summer box office with a diversity of fare (that’s been the motif all season long, no?).
28 Years Later, which was a major win for Sony in its auction, is an elevated horror film, arguably older-skewing than Final Destination Bloodlines, which pulled in 67% 18-34. Fans have emailed us, urging us to report that the Boyle-directed third installment after 28 Days Later and 28 Weeks Later has a shot at a $50M+ opening, but the presales show no indication of that. Advance ticket sales are just above Longlegs ($22.4M) and Civil War ($25.5M) and 2023’s Evil Dead Rise ($24.5M). A $30M start would be a major win for this $60M net-cost feature production about a father and a boy venturing into an isle full of infected dead people who hunger for the living.
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Should 28 Years Later be destined for a bigger life in its opening weekend, it would boil down to what reviews come in at — the embargo lifts at 2 p.m. PT Wednesday — and the heat coming off of Thursday night. Final Destination Bloodlines previews came in at $5.5M before a $20.9M Friday, which turned into a $51.6M 3-day. Stateside previews start at noon Thursday at 2,800 sites with an expansion to 3,300. PLFs are being shared among 28 Years Later, Elio and How to Train Your Dragon.
28 Years Later is being unleashed in virtually all overseas markets this weekend save China, where the film has been submitted for approval. We’re looking at a big weekend in the UK and among the European majors, with input from Mexico and some Southeast Asian markets to get to a combined offshore launch of $28M, and maybe more. Comps are coming up in the auteur horror sphere, which points to last year’s Nosferatu ($26M like-for-like debut) and A Quiet Place: Day One ($32.6M) similarly in same markets and at today’s rates.
Elio‘s U.S./Canada advance ticket sales are around $1M, which is just ahead of where Pixar’s 2023 summer original title Elemental was. That movie opened to $29.6M. While $20M stateside is nothing to brag about, this is the new paradigm for original animated movie openings, and the importance, given matinee business during the week for families, is the leg-out factor. Elemental did a 5x multiple, for a final domestic of $154.4M. Reviews for Elio stand at 82% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, which is higher than Elemental‘s 73%. Elio follows a young space fanatic whose wish for adventures with aliens in outer space comes true. His journey leads to a greater connection with earthbound aunt who cares for him following the death of his parents. The movie itself is its biggest advertisement: Look for word of mouth to carry Elio.
Elio is booked at 3,750 theatres in U.S./Canada including 725 Premium Large Format screens, 2,500+ 3D Screens and 175 D-Box/Motion screens. Limited 2D & 3D Early Access screenings will take place Thursday, followed by nationwide previews beginning at 2 p.m. The movie cost $150M before P&A.
The film directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi and Adrian Molina is going out in 80% of the overseas footprint and eyeing a $30M international start with room for upside. Comps in terms of new animated IP at today’s rates are 2023’s Migration ($27M) and last year’s The Wild Robot ($33M) and Elemental ($35M). Note that Elio, which was heavily trailered on Lilo & Stitch in general, heads to Spain on July 9, China on June 27 then Japan for the Obon holiday on August 1.
There’s also the Simon West-directed action comedy Bride Hard, starring Rebel Wilson and Anna Camp. Booked at 2,000 theaters, per Comscore, sources say the movie is expected to register only in the low single digits in its Friday-Sunday.