Weekend projections: Dog Man tops chart on weekend clobbered by Super Bowl

Today’s Super Bowl is expected to keep a large chunk of the movie audience out of theaters today, dragging down earnings across the board. Dog Man will take a 62% hit from its opening weekend earnings, a substantial amount for a family film, but will win the weekend fairly easily, with new releases Heart Eyes and Love Hurts each falling well short of $10 million.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

The only film to out-perform the model’s Friday-morning prediction is Love Hurts, although that’s a pyrrhic victory, given it will land in third place with around $5.8 million—well below the potential for a film like this. Both Love Hurts and Heart Eyes might be helped a little by Valentine’s Day coming up on Friday, but it will most likely be too little, too late, in both cases.

The biggest winner at the box office this weekend is arguably Becoming Led Zeppelin, which will pick up $2.685 million from 369 IMAX screens this weekend. That’s the best weekend for a documentary since Piece by Piece’s $3.85 million in October last year.

Also of note, Paddington in Peru has now topped $100 million at the international box office ahead of its domestic release on Friday.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com