Weekend projections: Snow White struggles to a mid-40s opening

Snow White will perform somewhat better than our dire Friday-morning prediction, but is limping towards a $43-million opening, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning projection. The film is showing good legs, based on our model’s analysis, and the studio can point towards it having the second-best weekend of 2025 so far, but that’s slim pickings for a movie that could easily have earned double this amount.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Thanks to Captain America: Brave New World and Mufasa: The Lion King, Disney has four of the top five, and six of the top ten weekends of 2025 to date, and a domestic market share of 32%. The studio estimates this morning that it has an even more dominant market share internationally so far this year, claiming 40% of the global earnings for MPA members.

Snow White will earn about $44.3 million internationally this weekend, led by the United Kingdom ($5.1 million), Mexico ($4.1m), Italy ($4.0m), and France ($3.0m). Its domestic audience is 72% female, 43% Caucasian, 30% Hispanic, and 11% African-American, per ComScore’s PostTrak polling.

There’s not much else to get excited about in this weekend’s results. The beginning of Spring Break boosted the overall market by about 4% according to our model, and every dollar counts right now, given that the top 10 will come in with around $68.5 million in total. The market as a whole will be around $75 million, which remains dismal, particularly with A Minecraft Movie the only film with the potential to earn really big bucks between now and the beginning of May.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com