Despite what’s expected to be a better holiday stretch from Christmas Eve though New Year’s Eve than last year’s stretch of $396.3M (per Comscore), the 2025 annual box office is expected to come up short from its anticipated $9 billion with about $8.8B-$8.9B per distribution sources.
That’s about 1% to 2% higher than 2024’s $8.7B. Now, sources are forecasting that 2026 will be the year of $9B+ with Super Mario Bros Galaxy Movie, Supergirl, The Devil Wears Prada 2, Avengers: Doomsday, and Dune: Part 3 among several other mega tentpoles in the mix. 2023 continues to rep the highest post Covid year at the B.O. with $9B. Attendance per EntTelligence, for Jan. 1-Dec. 22 stands at 745 million off average ticket prices of $13.29 general and premium upcharge tickets at $17.65. Moviegoers consumed 71 billion minutes of movies from 11,000 titles.
Christmas falls on one of the best days of the year: Thursday. Starting in the evening the holiday is one of great moviegoing rebound, particularly for families with all gift-giving, parties and shopping distractions now in the rear-view mirror. Friday-Sunday are free and clear of holidays and are pure moviegoing days. The worst for distributors is when Christmas Eve, a slow day, and Christmas Day fall on the Friday-Sunday span. That’s a wrench to turnstiles.
20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire and Ash will continue to conquer with an estimated $75M 4-day take; $55M second 3-day weekend, -38%, from its $89.1M opening. Yesterday, the James Cameron directed, and Cameron, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Josh Friedman & Shane Salerno story by threequel crossed $398.7M worldwide. Monday domestic was $13.3M at 3,800 locations, -18% from Avatar: Way of Water‘s first Monday of $16.2M. Fire and Ash‘s total U.S./Canada running cume is $102.5M. That running cume for Fire and Ash is about $10M less than the combined first 4-day domestic totals of Mufasa and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 a year ago (which totaled $112.5M). Audience score for the Cameron Na’vi movie on Rotten Tomatoes remains at 91%.
Sony looks to be reviving comedy as its meta take of 1997’s Anaconda is looking at second place with $20M+ at 3,400 locations. There are previews starting tomorrow at 12noon for the Jack Black-Paul Rudd movie with Thursday showtimes at 2,900 locations starting as early as 9AM. So far, 39 critics don’t like it on Rotten Tomatoes at 39%. However, Anaconda is the only place for laughs this Christmas. First choice and unaided awareness for the $45M net production is best with guys under 25.
Universal Pictures International / Everett Collection
Third, fourth, fifth and sixth will be a toss between Focus Features’ new Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson Neil Diamond tribute movie, Song Sung Blue, A24’s wide expansion of Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (already at $1M+ in six NYC and LA locations), and the second weekends of Angel Studio’s David and Lionsgate’s The Housemaid. All are eyeing $12M-mid-teens apiece over four days. Marty Supreme and Housemaid could overindex.
Song Sung Blue from filmmaker Craig Brewer and produced by Brewer, John David and John Fox, will open in 2,400 locations on Christmas with previews starting at 2PM on Christmas Eve. Jackman and Hudson play real-life Wisconsin couple Mike and Claire Sardina who fell in love via their music impersonators’ acts. Their tale — a roller coaster. You gotta see the movie to find out what happens. Critics are 73% certified fresh. Hudson is up for Best Female in a Feature Comedy/Musical at the Golden Globes. Best unaided awareness is with men and women over 25, on par with last year’s A Complete Unknown and slightly higher than Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere.
The Timothée Chalamet period dramedy Marty Supreme stands at 95% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and is best with men over 25 in first choice and unaided awareness. Previews start tomorrow around 12 noon. Anticipation is building especially in the wake of Chalamet’s recent viral stunt of standing atop The Sphere in Las Vegas and the Empire State Building which clocked 1.3M views on Instagram (I hear he truly braved this like a pro — he’s not a fan of heights). Social media reach for the Chalamet movie is 197M across TikTok, Instagram, X, Facebook, YouTube and Twitter, which isn’t far from Saltburn‘s 214M reach.
Chalamet’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown got a pure 5-day launch last Christmas, Wednesday-Sunday, grossing $23.2M; pic’s 3-day was $11.6M. It was great counterprogramming over the holiday ending its run at $75M.
RelishMix says that pre-wide release social media stats on Marty Supreme are running 47% above high concept drama genre norms boosted by Chalamet’s 21.5M fans, Tyler the Creator’s 39M, Gwyneth Paltrow’s 15.2M followers, Kevin O’Leary’s 6.5M, Fran Drescher at 2.8M and Odessa A’Zion at 2M.
Says RelishMix, “Convo runs positive for Marty Supreme when you cut through the static and lock onto the core fandom, who are here for Timmy, Tyler and Safdie magic. Devotion fires fast with lines like ‘I’m so excited about this film, I would watch anything with Timmy in it’ and ‘Clicked for Tim, stayed for Tyler, I’ll go to theaters since Tyler is in it.’ Table-tennis lifers show up strong, saying ‘As a table tennis lover, can’t wait to see Marty Supreme hit the big screen’ and ‘As someone whose main sport has been table tennis since I was a little kid, I have to watch this movie.’ Awards chatter peaks early with ‘I smell Oscars’ and ‘Oscars incoming, lighten up people.’ Fans brand the package prestige, from ‘A24 + Chalamet + Safdie = excellent’ to ‘Omg this looks brilliant.’ Even comps land flattering, with ‘Totally getting Forrest Gump vibes here and I’m in’ and ‘It’s Bob Dylan playing ping pong.’”
Yesterday, Zootopia 2 was No. 2 at the Monday B.O. with $4.3M at 3,540 and a running total of $287.4M. Remember, we told you that there were 81% K-12 out and 91% colleges on break.
Lionsgate’s Housemaid was $3.4M at 3,015 sites, -35% from Sunday, in third with a running four-day of $22.4M.
Angel Studio’s David at 3,118 made $3.3M, -42% from Sunday, for a running cume of $25.2M.
Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants at 3,557 sites is up to $18.4M after four days with Monday taking in $2.8M, -34% from Sunday.