‘Sonic’ & ‘Mufasa’ Fight for No. 1 Post Christmas

SATURDAY a.m.: The back and forth between the lion and the land critter continues this weekend. Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 won his second Friday over Disney’s Mufasa, $12.6M to $12.1M, and the blue guy is apt to win his second 3-day weekend with $37.5M, -38%, over the king of the jungle’s estimated $35.5M. But in the 5-day run-off since Christmas, Mufasa is licking his chops to herald himself as No. 1 with $61.7M while Sonic 3 settles for $59.4M.

This family flurry including the massive Thanksgiving holdovers of Wicked ($19.85M 3-day, 5-day $32.1M … Universal, are you sure you wanted to put this movie out on PVOD so soon Dec. 31 with a 40-day window? It’s still raging at the box office with a $424.6M running cume!) and Moana 2 ($17.8M 3-day, 5-day $27.9M) is fueling a 3-day overall weekend of $161M, 43% over the near New Year’s Eve weekend of last year and 56% ahead of the same frame at the tail end of 2022 when Avatar: The Way of Water was soaking up most of the business in a deep freeze winter.

The 3-day on Focus Features’ Nosferatu stands at $20.15M with a 5-day of $39.3M. That’s nothing to diss, though a tad lower from earlier forecasts with that 3-day opening still the fourth best for the Uni classic label after Downton Abbey ($31M), Insidious 3 ($23.7M) and London Has Fallen ($21.6M). Reasons on PostTrak why audiences attended this movie include the horror genre (48%), director Robert Eggers (32%), while 33% thought the fanged monster and babe feature looked fun and entertaining. Lots of walk-up business with 59% of the audience buying their tickets same day. What type of ads influenced the audience the most to find this movie? Of those polled, 22% cited social media, while 16% said friends and family with 11% saying in-theater trailer. Breakdown of demos were men over 25 (41%), women over 25 (33%), women under 25 (14%) and men under 25 (13%). The best grades for this movie came from the 25-34 demo (81%) and 35-44 (81%).

Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown at a 3-day of $11.8M and 5-day of $23.3M also saw notable walk-up at 62%. So far, those opening figures are the best for the Disney-owned 20th Century Fox classic label post the 2019 merger as well as COVID. Reasons why people went: 53% bought tickets because it was a Bob Dylan movie, 36% went for Timothée Chalamet, while 20% went for the cast as a whole, which included Monica Barbaro, Elle Fanning and Edward Norton. 50/50 male-female split as of last night on PostTrak with 42% women over 25 who gave the movie its best grade at 94%, men over 25 at 40% with a 91% grade, 10% men under 25 (84% grade) while women under 25 at 8% trailed (with an 89% grade).

FRIDAY a.m.: Mufasa continued to get from the count on Thursday, beating Sonic The Hedgehog 3, $12M to $11.55M. The 3-day and 5-days on these two family movies are expected to be close. Mufasa is currently looking to be the stronger at $58M. Running total through yesterday on Mufasa is $76.4M while Sonic 3 stands at $99.55M.

But enough about those filthy animals, the real story over the holiday are the classic labels, Focus Features and Searchlight which are both seeing record openings. Post-COVID, Focus Features rose from the ashes this weekend to remind the town how hip they can make movies — the win here being Robert Eggers’ gothic vampire movie Nosferatu which is eyeing a $21.4M 3-day and $40.6M 5-day after $7.6M yesterday, the pic’s second day of release. At five days, that’s the biggest Focus Features opening ever, besting the Friday-Tuesday take of 2019’s Downton Abbey which did $38.4M. At 3-days, Nosferatu is bound to rank as the fourth best for Focus after Downton Abbey ($31M), Insidious 3 ($23.7M) and London Has Fallen ($21.6M) — still excellent for this arthouse label which has been guard-railed by Comcast Universal’s 17-day PVOD window. The 55% male-skewing, 4-star PostTrak Nosferatu is also easily the best opening for Focus Features post-pandemic ahead of 2022’s Downton Abbey: The New Era, which did $16M. As we mentioned, Nosferatu is filmmaker Eggers’ best opening of his career, ahead of New Regency/Focus Features’ The Northman ($12.2M). The 7 p.m. at the Alamo Drafthouse in Yonkers, New York last night for this Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hoult, Bill Skarsgard and Aaron Taylor-Johnson feature was completely sold out.

Similar applause here for Searchlight with James Mangold’s Bob Dylan movie, A Complete Unknown, which is seeing a $12M 3-day and $24M 5-day. For the classic label, it’s the best opening they’ve seen post the 2019 Disney merger. For reference, the top three Searchlight openings ever belong to 2009’s Notorious ($20M), 2006’s The Hills Have Eyes ($15.7M) and 2018’s Super Troopers 2 ($15.1M).

In a theatrical marketplace which continues to compete with streaming on mid-sized films, the success here for Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown should be duly noted and provide plenty of hope for the greenlighting of such fare as we head into a 2025 box office year, untainted by strikes and (knock on wood) a pandemic. What’s working here? In Nosferatu it’s the tried-and true horror genre at work but in the hands of a rising cool auteur in Eggers, who is making a name for himself among the hipster 18-34 (56%) à la Ari Aster. With A Complete Unknown, it’s an all-accessible movie about Dylan which adults (62% over 35) haven’t had before in the hands of a director who knows how to create passion and warmth from the warts and all of such onstage artists (read, the Oscar-winning Walk the Line which opened to $22.3M and legged out to $119.5M domestic).

Juxtapose Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown to the non-franchise adult openings of last Christmas: The $8M period drama The Boys in the Boat, the Michael Mann dark drama Ferrari ($3.9M), the tragic A24 wrestling dynasty drama The Iron Claw ($4.8M) and the very front-loaded The Color Purple ($11.7M 3-day), which finaled at $60.6M.

Also, let’s not ignore that when it comes to launching these two movies — there’s no better time than now when everyone is going.

Universal’s Wicked made $6.89M in fourth place yesterday behind Nosferatu ending its fifth week at $34.3M and crossing the four century mark with $404.7M. The five-day outlook is $35.5M. The Jon M. Chu-directed movie hits PVOD and digital Dec. 31.

Disney’s Moana 2 is seeing a 5-day of $27M. Yesterday was $5.7M for a $30.3M fourth week and a running total of $376.2M.

A24’s very R-rated office romance drama Babygirl starring Nicole Kidman and Harris Dickinson made $1.3M yesterday, -13% from its Christmas Day of $1.5M for a running total of $2.8M. 5-day outlook is just under $7M.

Amazon MGM Studios’ The Fire Inside grossed $613K on Thursday, -64% from Christmas. The Rachel Morrison young woman’s boxing movie is looking at a 5-day of $4.3M in 10th place.