The last two Business Reports featured our first analysis of 2026, with predictions for all announced wide releases in the first and second quarters. In the latest issue of The Numbers Business Report, we continue building out predictions for 2026, shifting our focus towards the beginning of the end of the year. Our feature article presents our first full-quarter prediction, along with detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for the major releases scheduled for that period.
July’s releases dominate the third quarter at the box office, led by major franchise continuations and the highly anticipated Christopher Nolan film, The Odyssey. Predicted to claim the number one spot in the third quarter is the next in the Spider-Man/MCU franchise, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, following Spider-Man: No Way Home, which earned $814.81 million domestically.
Another significant continuation arrives from Illumination’s Minions/Despicable Me franchises (which have earned $1.95 billion to date) with Minions 3. Other notable franchise releases include the live-action Moana, a sixth Insidious movie, Clayface joining the DC Universe, a reboot of the Resident Evil franchise, a Practical Magic 28th-anniversary reunion, and an Evil Dead spin-off.
By month, our current standouts are:
July: Spider-Man: Brand New Day ($470m), Minions 3 ($390m), The Odyssey ($310m), Moana ($290m)
August: Insidious: Red Tale ($62m)
September: Clayface ($100m)
August and September look sparse in comparison to July, as smaller franchises and distributors like Ketchup Entertainment and the newly-founded Row K Entertainment aim to connect their films, Coyote vs. Acme, Cliffhanger, and Charlie Harper, with their target audiences.
To discover our full official prediction for the second quarter, and revised prediction for the first quarter, subscribe to The Numbers Business Report.
Also in this edition…
We have our final pre-release predictions for all of November’s wide releases, including Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 (among many others), along with our full 2025 prediction.
Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.
For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.
On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.
Alongside The Business Report, we are publishing updated six-week predictions every week. Those have day-by-day predictions of the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Unlock this addition through a subscription.
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