The Numbers Business Report looks at the Oscars, theatrical ticket prices, and Premium Large Format

Last month’s edition of The Numbers Business Report looked back at 2025. This month, we look forward with our annual analysis of the Oscars, and a look at how IMAX and other Premium Large Formats are shaping the industry. In our 2026 prediction update, we discuss how middle-tier releases are increasingly influencing the industry. Our theatrical windows article looks at the final 2025 home market numbers. We also add a critical data point that feeds into our analysis for 2026—the average ticket price in 2025, and a look at the underlying inflation in theatrical ticket prices.

Another awards season is in full swing, and all eyes are once again on the Academy Awards. While everyone has personal favorites, we ground our predictions in data. For the second year in a row, we set out to determine whether historical performance across major industry awards can help predict the Best Picture winner for the 98th Academy Awards on March 15.

To begin, we examined the relationship between major precursor awards and eventual Oscar winners. At the time of launch, three significant ceremonies, PGA, SAG, and WGA, hadn’t taken place. Over the weekend, One Battle After Another took home the PGA award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Picture, and Sinners won the award for Oustanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Motion Picture from the annual Actor Awards (formerly known as the SAG Awards). The 2026 WGA Awards, which were scheduled for March 8, have since been cancelled due to the ongoing WGAW staff union’s strike.

While last year’s model incorporated those final results, this year we expanded our scope earlier in the season to evaluate a broader set of indicators.

After compiling the data, as shown in the table below, we tracked each Oscar-winning Best Picture and the number of additional awards it won in the same year. We then calculated how frequently an Oscar winner secured each of these awards. For example, out of the 25 Best Picture winners in our dataset, 17 also won both the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film and the Critics’ Choice Movie Award for Best Picture.

Applying our weighted scoring system to this year’s nominees, our model projects One Battle After Another as the likely winner of Best Picture, earning a composite score of 84.8. Since it secured the PGA Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture on February 28, its projected probability of winning Best Picture has increased significantly. The SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture is another key indicator, which went to Sinners. Although historically less predictive than the PGA under our weighting system, it remains an important signal in the final stretch of awards season.

Overall, One Battle After Anotherremains the strongest contender for Best Picture according to our model. Now, will the Academy follow historical precedent, or will 2026 emerge as another outlier year?

The data doesn’t end there. Read the report for our full, in-depth coverage.

Also in this edition…

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of March’s wide releases, including Hoppers and Project Hail Mary (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are now publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Click here to subscribe.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team