The bad boys and bad girls superhero movie Thunderbolts*, about the continuing adventures of Yelena Belova, Winter Soldier, Alexei Shostakov, Ghost and John Walker, is hoping to keep the box office ball in play with a $175 million global start as Marvel Studios kicks off summer Friday, a traditional feat that it wasn’t able to attempt a year ago due to the aftermath of the strikes.
Currently, U.S. and Canada presales for Thunderbolts* stands at $12M+, which is on pace with another first installment MCU movie, 2021’s Eternals ($71.2M). The presales figure is also ahead of that year’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings ($75.3M) and behind this year’s Captain America: Brave New World ($88.8M). Hence, the current opening projection on Thunderbolts* is $70M-$75M domestic at 4,300 theaters, with another $90M-$100M abroad.
Like previous MCU titles, the expected draws are males over and under 25. Given that Thunderbolts* is largely Florence Pugh’s movie, it will be interesting to see if her Little Women and Don’t Worry Darling female fanbase shows up; women under 25 are currently trailing men under 25 in first choice.
The plus factor for Thunderbolts* are that reviews out of last night’s Hollywood premiere are pretty good at 89% certified fresh which is higher than Captain America: Brave New World (48% rotten), Eternals (47%) and even The Marvels (62%). Hopefully, that will give some boom to the pic’s box office.
Previews start Thursday at 2PM for the movie from Beef Emmy-winning episodic and Robot & Frank director Jake Schreier. Essentially, Thunderbolts* has the marketplace to itself until New Line’s Final Destination: Bloodlines opens on May 16. Thunderbolts* was made for $180M net and had production paused due to the strikes.
Michael B. Jordan in ‘Sinners‘
Warner Bros
Thunderbolts* conquers all of the premium screens (Imax, PLF, etc) that Warner Bros’ Sinners possessed, but still that won’t put a hex on the Ryan Coogler-directed, Michael B. Jordan-starring vampire film, which per industry estimates looks to ease between 25%-30% in its third weekend for $32M-$34.2M. Sinners posted the second-best hold for a R-rated horror movie, -5%, in its second weekend, just behind Sony/Spyglass’ Heart Eyes (+19%). By comparison, Jordan Peele’s 2017 horror movie Get Out eased 15% in its second frame and 27% in its third. Sinners grossed $5.5M in its second Monday for a running cume of $128.7M, 59% ahead of Get Out‘s first 11 days. Get Out ended its stateside run at $176M.
Thunderbolts* gets going at the international box office beginning Wednesday, notably in France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Korea and China. Thursday adds the UK, Australia, Brazil, Germany, Mexico and others, while Friday ushers in Japan. In total, this is a day-and-date global release alongside domestic.
The $90M-$100M opening offshore range comps to Shang Chi which bowed to $52M in like-for-likes at open (this does not include China, where the movie did not release). Another Marvel title that did not release in China, The Eternals, did $88M in its overseas bow. The first Ant-Man did $103M, including $37M from China, while the first Guardians of the Galaxy did $98M including $26M from China. Note that all of the above figures are at today’s rates.
There are May 1 holidays in many markets which will help provide a clearer picture post-Thursday. Note that China is opening on a non-traditional Wednesday and Thunderbolts* currently leads presales on that day, but this is a competitive frame with several local titles launching as well.
We expect a mix of the UK, Germany, France, Brazil and Mexico to do the biggest business.
(L-R) Alan Bergman, Bob Iger and Kevin Feige at the Thunderbolts* premiere in Hollywood
Jesse Grant/Disney/Getty
The London premiere for Thunderbolts*, followed by the L.A. unveiling, has helped spur presales in many offshore markets. Disney also held word-of-mouth screenings in the past week for influencers and fans in 15 markets including Germany, Brazil and Mexico.
Nicolas Cage in ‘The Surfer‘
Cannes Film Festival
Also opening in the U.S. is Roadside Attractions’ Cannes acquisition The Surfer starring Nicolas Cage from filmmaker Lorcan Finnegan. Pic’s blurb: A man returns to the idyllic beach of his childhood to surf with his son. When he is humiliated by a group of locals, the man is drawn into a conflict that keeps rising and pushes him to his breaking point.
The movie stands at 88% fresh with critics and is eyeing $1M+ at 900 engagements.