The Valero Houston Refinery in Houston, Texas, US, on Friday, March 13, 2026. The worst supply disruption in the history of the oil market is showing no signs of abating, with crude prices surging since the Iran war began. Photographer: Mark Felix/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed rollback of methane emissions rules would do little to lower oil and natural gas prices, according to the Environmental Protection Agency’s own economic modeling.
Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the proposal Tuesday in Lubbock, Texas, in a bid to lower regulatory costs and support domestic energy production.
“When owners and operators can produce, America benefits with lower prices,” Zeldin said in EPA’s announcement.
The EPA projects that the changes would lower U.S. crude prices by 11 cents a barrel in 2027, or 0.14%, while increasing domestic oil production by 0.09%. That amounts to roughly one extra barrel for every 1,000 the U.S. would otherwise produce, according to CNBC’s calculations.
CLSA energy research analyst Baden Moore said uncertainty over implementation and the policy’s durability across administrations could constrain producers’ investment decisions.
That “limits the upside to current production rates in the near term,” including in 2027, he told CNBC.
He added that the changes could instead slow declines in existing production by allowing some wells to remain operational when environmental compliance costs would otherwise make them uneconomic.
Moore anticipates that the policy would affect only a small proportion of the U.S. shale market.
With CLSA expecting oil prices to remain above $80 a barrel, many wells would already be commercially viable, limiting the number whose continued operation would depend on regulatory relief.
The proposal could help many well operators while having a limited effect on overall supply.
Marginal wells — wells that produce small amounts of oil and gas — account for around 80% of active U.S. wells, but less than 10% of production, according to the International Energy Agency.
EPA proposal rollback
The EPA is considering lighter methane requirements based either on a well site’s production levels or whether it uses conventional or unconventional extraction methods.
The agency would also scrap its Super Emitter Program, which relies on approved third-party monitors to identify major methane releases. Separately, operators could manage gas produced alongside oil through flaring that destroys 95% of the methane.
The EPA projects the proposal would result in an additional 60 million short tons of methane emissions from 2027 through 2050.
The agency told CNBC it estimates the changes would save the U.S. economy about $45 billion over that period, including roughly $42 billion in lower compliance costs.
The EPA also expects operators to capture less gas for sale or use, resulting in about $4.2 billion in lost revenue. That figure is already reflected in its estimate of $42 billion in compliance savings.
This proposal remains subject to the rulemaking process, including a public-comment period and further EPA review, before any changes can be finalized.
It comes as the Trump administration has also moved to ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports as part of efforts to address fuel prices. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC Tuesday that additional shipments could be permitted depending on Moscow’s actions.