Weekend predictions: Ballerina looking likely to finish second to Lilo & Stitch this weekend

Lilo & Stitch looks likely to stay top of the box office chart this weekend as Ballerina needs to pick up pace a little from its $3.75 million in previews to reach $30 million this weekend. Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme will be aiming for the top half of the top 10 as it expands wide, and three other films debut in over 600 theaters this weekend.

Here are the model’s predictions, as of Friday lunchtime…

$30 million is still on the cards for Ballerina, and strong word of mouth coming out of its Wednesday advanced screenings and Thursday previews will help. It’ll need to earn 8 times those preview numbers to hit $30 million, which would be a good performance for an action movie, but within reach.

We have two predictions for The Phoenician Scheme. The first based solely on the performance of previous Wes Anderson films when they expand:

The second prediction is based on its wide expansion after opening with $560,499 in just six theaters last weekend:

$5.5 million to $8 million is a good estimated range of possible outcomes for the film this weekend. Our final prediction, $6.79 million, is the average of the two predictions above.

IFC Films launches Dangerous Animals in 1,636 theaters this weekend…

IFC and their sister company RLJ Entertainment have a hit-and-miss record when opening films nationwide over the past couple of years. Our audience buzz measure points to this movie landing in the higher bracket, and the theater count supports the notion that it can make a couple of million dollars. It’s hard to predict though, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see it coming in closer to $1 million, particularly with competition from the three horror movies already in the top 10.

GKIDS brings anime to over 1,000 theaters this weekend in the form of Dan Da Dan: Evil Eye.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

The Ritual from XYZ Films is rumored to be playing in around 1,000 theaters this weekend, but the distributor is too new, and the theater count too approximate, for us to have a prediction for its opening. Could it open in the top 10? Maybe, but it’s a longshot, even with star power in the form of Al Pacino and Dan Stevens.

Overall, we’re looking at a good weekend, considering the expected chart-topper, Lilo & Stitch, will be playing in its third weekend, and Ballerina isn’t hitting it out the park so far. With potential big hits arriving on each of the next seven weekends, the market is well set up for peak Summer season.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com