Weekend predictions: Civil War and Godzilla x Kong in close race at the top

Our model thinks Civil War has a very slight edge over Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire going into what will be an interesting weekend at the box office. Alex Garland’s controversial action thriller will give the director his best opening weekend, beating Annihilation’s $11.1-million debut in 2018. Something over $20 million looks likely, but whether it can beat Kong remains to be seen.

Here’s what the model thought of Civil War going into the weekend…

Garland has made some interesting and provocative movies, but Civil War is perhaps his boldest film yet. He doesn’t have a spectacular record at the box office, but his films continue to earn good money on the home market long after their release, which is a rare feat. The critical and audience consensus on Civil War is positive so far, and its preview numbers yesterday are very good…

Given that this isn’t a sequel, the preview multiplier could be higher than average, so something over $25 million is within reach. But the post-pandemic performance of films like this has been a multiplier of roughly 8 on average, which points to an opening in the low 20s.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

Godzilla is in with a shot of winning the weekend still, although competition from Civil War might cause a slight larger drop than the model predicts. Something a little under $20 million seems likely to me, but the race for the weekend win is too close to call right now, in my opinion.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com