Weekend predictions: Flight Risk battling Mufasa for top spot

Flight Risk started out with $950,000 in previews on Thursday. That’s a little behind expectations, and weak reviews mean it might not hold on all that well through the weekend. If it stumbles, Mufasa: The Lion King could still step in and grab a win in its eighth weekend in theaters.

Here’s the model’s baseline prediction for Flight Risk:

Its Thursday previews are looking just a touch soft…

The model is predicting a downward trajectory for this film over the weekend, and a final 3-day number around $9 million. There are rumors that it should beat that number, but it’ll need a good run on Saturday and Sunday.

Presence looked like it could have a strong opening based on our audience tracking…

Thursday’s numbers don’t look so good…

Again, the model is placing a lot of faith in the preview figure, but it looks as though Presence will end somewhere in the middle of the top 10.

Brave the Dark, from Angel Studios, has looked like it will come in a little lower than the studio’s recent releases:

Its previews suggest it’ll come in short of expectations:

The final film on our radar this weekend is The Colors Within, an anime film from GKIDS…

We don’t have word on the theater count for this film, and currently don’t expect it to hit the top 10, but anime films are challenging to predict, so it’s worth looking out for.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

Could Mufasa really win again? Well, maybe. I think the model is probably a little over-optimistic about its chances, particularly since we’re coming off the MLK weekend. However, Flight Risk has NFL games to contend with this weekend. That could be enough to derail its weekend win. The model thinks so, but my money is still on Flight Risk to squeak out a win.

Regardless of how the top two line up, we’re looking at a slow weekend in theaters.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com