Weekend predictions: Mercy looks set to end Avatar’s winning run (updated)

Amazon MGM Studios’ Mercy should top the box office chart this weekend, finally dethroning Avatar: Fire and Ash, after a five-week run at the top. With a major storm coming through the central United States, and forecast to affect around 200 million people, there’s quite a bit of uncertainty brewing through the weekend.

(Article updated to include Mercy preview numbers.)

Here’s our model’s baseline prediction for Mercy:

Audience interest in this film has only been moderate, and its reviews won’t help. There’s obviously a question of how many people will brave the weather to see a movie that isn’t getting a great reception from critics, although sci-fi thrillers are review-proof to an extent.

The original version of this article was published before we received preview estimates. They are in now, and… they don’t really change anything

The good news is that the previews support an opening weekend around $12 million, but the potential for a major weather disruption to bring that number down remains.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

There are a few films worth looking out for on the chart this weekend. Hamnet is expanding into nearly 2,000 theaters on the back of its Oscar nominations and Golden Globe wins. I think the model might be a little too optimistic about its chances, but a place in the top 10 seems a good bet.

Return to Silent Hill is tracking poorly, but is playing in enough theaters (1,850) to have a shot at the top 10. Other contenders include Sinners (relaunching in 875 venues) and One Battle After Another (also playing in 875 theaters). Two new releases, Clika, debuting in 522 locations, and H is for Hawk, which launches in 476 theaters, could also challenge for a spot in the top 10.

Overall, this is a tough weekend to predict, coming off a long weekend, and with storm clouds gathering. Mercy looks a fairly safe bet for number one, from what I’m hearing, but temporary theater closings due to the weather, or people simply choosing to stay of the cold, could play an unusually large role in determining where things land by the end of the day on Sunday.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com