Weekend projections: Fantastic Four’s feisty first foray

While it’s falling short of what looked possible on Friday, The Fantastic Four: First Steps will land with an impressive $118 million this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning projection. That’s easily the best debut for an origin story in the Marvel Cinematic Universe since Avengers: Endgame, and a signal that the “fewer is better” approach for the studio is working so far.

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Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Fantastic Four’s weekend was largely shaped by a big turnout from the usual Marvel audience, which showed up in force on Thursday and Friday, giving the film a $57-million first “day”—slightly ahead of Superman’s $56.1 million a couple of weeks ago. Even though it’s getting a great reaction for its audience (exemplified by an A- CinemaScore), word-of-mouth didn’t really kick in as the weekend progressed. Disney pegs Saturday’s box office at $33.2 million, compared to $37.6 million for Superman, and the current expectation for Sunday is $27.8 million, versus $31.3 million for the caped Kryptoner.

Our model is still pretty upbeat about Fantastic Four’s long-term prospects, predicting it will finish its domestic run with around $337 million. Superman is predicted to end with around $370 million right now, in comparison.

Internationally, Fantastic Four is set to open with $100 million, per the studio, led by Mexico, with $12 million, and the United Kingdom, with $10.8 million. The only other territories to top $5 million to date are France ($5.7 million) and Brazil ($5.1 million), which is a sign of Hollywood’s general struggles in finding international audiences at the moment. Superman’s international earnings are likewise falling short of its domestic performance, with $213.2 million to date overseas, compared to $289.5 million at home.

What may be hurting Fantastic Four is its demographics. The opening weekend audience in the US is 68% male, and just 32% female, according to ComScore’s PostTrak (via Disney). It’s breaking fairly evenly between younger and older audiences, with 42% under 25, and 58% older. There’s a broad cultural mix, with the audience measured as 37% Caucasian, 30% Hispanic, 18% African-American, 10% Asian, and 5% Native American and Other. The path to a long run for the film probably lies in drawing in more women, with word-of-mouth key on that front.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com