Weekend projections: Godzilla stays top as Monkey Man debuts with $10 million

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire will easily win the weekend at the box office, on a slow weekend in theaters. There are actually more positive surprises than negative ones this morning, but neither Monkey Man nor The First Omen are doing enough to move the needle for the market as a whole.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Godzilla x Kong will end the weekend with about $135 million, and our model thinks it will end with just over $200 million domestically. Its international numbers are running higher than that, and $500 million worldwide seems within reach.

Monkey Man is coming in right in line with our Friday-morning prediction. As I noted then, this was a hard movie to predict. The buzz leading up to its release suggested it could have ended higher, but this is a satisfactory result for a new original film. Likewise, the number for The First Omen is OK, and, in fact, slightly better than our prediction based on its Friday previews and our baseline analysis. The bad news for both of the new very wide releases is that they aren’t earning the kind of money needed for sequels to be seriously considered.

There are two pleasant surprises in the top 10 this weekend. Someone Like You will land with $3 million for Fathom Events, while playing in just 1,800 theaters. Meanwhile the mystery comedy Wicked Little Letters, starring Olivia Colman, will hit the top 10 for Sony Pictures Classics. We don’t have an official estimate for the film, but it should top $1.3 million.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com