Weekend projections: Inside Out beats debut of A Quiet Place: Day One in close box office race

Inside Out 2 will be number one, and A Quiet Place: Day One will be number two, at the box office this weekend. Both films are coming in behind our Friday prediction, but neither film’s performance can be considered a disappointment, with Inside Out passing $450 million at the domestic box office and $1 billion worldwide in its third weekend, and A Quiet Place enjoying the best opening weekend for any movie in the franchise.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

There’s an argument that Day One ate into the weekend figures for Inside Out 2 and vice versa, with both films coming in about 25% short of our model’s prediction. But the market in general is looking a little softer than expected, with only two films outperforming expectations, and the total box office earned by all movies looking like it will basically be flat compared to last weekend.

Disney report that Inside Out 2 is the fastest animated film to reach $1 billion at the global box office, and it continues to post impressive numbers around the world. Mexico is the standout territory, with $81.9 million; other big earners are the United Kingdom, $40.2 million; Korea, $39.2 million; Brazil, $39.0 million; Italy, $31.3 million; Spain, $25.9 million; China, $24.0 million; Germany, $23.9 million; and France, with $22.4 million.

It’s also worth noting that Inside Out 2 will have the eighth-best 3rd weekend in theaters, and is now running ahead of The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Barbie at this point in their runs. Those films ended their runs with $575 million and $636 million domestically, respectively. Our model is predicting a final total of $592 million for Inside Out 2 as of this morning, but $600 million looks well within reach.

Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 will have the consolation of beating our model’s prediction this weekend, indicating that it has good legs so far. That’s not unexpected, and it’ll have to have spectacular legs, or do much more business overseas, to earn back its production budget. This was a film that could have broken out at the box office, but so far looks like it will have a fairly quiet run in theaters.

Overall, we were hoping this would be the second-best weekend of the year at the box office. We might have to settle for this being the third-best weekend, but the good news is that the three weekends vying for that crown are the last three weekends. We’re hardly looking at huge numbers, but the market has at least returned to something like normal in June. The further good news is that July has some potential blockbusters in store.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com