Weekend projections: Mercy headed for weekend win as weather takes a bite out of the box office

Mercy will claim the box office crown this weekend, comfortably beating Avatar: Fire and Ash on a weekend badly affected by harsh winter conditions across much of the United States. Amazon MGM Studios are projecting an $11.2-million debut for the sci-fi thriller, but the final result will depend to a large degree on how much the storm reduces turnout today.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

Overall, the top 10 looks as though it will come in about 18% behind our model’s Friday-morning prediction. While our model isn’t perfect, it suggests that the storm has taken about a 20% chunk out of box office earnings this weekend. From the numbers we’ve seen, different studios are using different factors to adjust expected earnings today, so the final results could vary quite a bit from film to film.

For Mercy in particular, note that Amazon MGM is reporting $11.2 million for opening weekend, even through the daily numbers add up to $11.1 million. There’s nothing particularly remarkable about that mathematically—a extra $20,000 each day would add $100,000 to the projected total after rounding to the nearest $100,000. The key question hangs over their predicted $2.2 million for Sunday, which represents a 44% decline from Saturday’s $3.9 million. That’s a pretty conservative forecast under normal circumstances (Primate, for example, fell 40% on its first Sunday, when it earned $2.5 million towards its $11.2-million opening), but might prove optimistic if there’s a sharp fall in walk-in purchases today.

The notable out-performer this weekend is Return to Silent Hill, which is coming in well ahead of our Friday-morning prediction. We didn’t have preview numbers to work with in that case, which makes our model less accurate, but it’s still a substantial increase on expectations. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring also lands in the top 10 in its second weekend with an unusually strong hold for a re-release. Warner Bros. and Fathom Events report a total of around $18.7 million globally for the trilogy during its 25th-anniversary celebration, with $15 million coming from North America.

Also of note, Avatar: Fire and Ash will pass $1 billion internationally this weekend. It stands at $378.5 million domestically now, and our model currently forecasts a final domestic box office of $405 million. Honestly, it’s getting hard to see how it will get past $400 million, although there isn’t much coming up in February that demands to be seen on a giant screen, which could help it hit that milestone.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com