Weekend projections: Weapons top again as popcorn-friendly films benefit from Labor Day long weekend

Weapons will come out a fairly easy winner at the box office this weekend, but it will pick up just $10.2 million between Friday and Sunday—the second-lowest box office for a weekend winner this year after Novocaine’s $8.8-million weekend win over the weekend of March 14–16. With Caught Stealing losing pace as the weekend progresses, Jaws will grab second place with $8.1 million.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Movies that play well with popcorn are doing well across the board this weekend. The performance of Jaws is the standout, but we’re also seeing comparatively good numbers from Superman, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, The Naked Gun, and The Bad Guys 2.

That’s not enough to lift the market overall, although it does mean we’re coming in a little ahead of the predicted combined top 10 from Friday. All the new releases are doing somewhat worse than expected. Caught Stealing is posting OK numbers for a crime thriller, but has run out of steam through the weekend. The Roses could benefit from good legs, given its somewhat older target demographic, but probably isn’t earning enough to stay in theaters for long. The Toxic Avenger just misses out on a place in the top 10, based on announced projections, with $1.76 million. Again, word-of-mouth could help that film, but it has all the hallmarks of a cult classic right now—including being somewhat overlooked on first release.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com