FRIDAY PM UPDATE after exclusive: What’s clear this weekend is that Valentine’s Day Saturday is going to be big — the question is how big. The bell-shaped trajectory of the weekend is becoming a hard one for some to forecast. Currently, Emerald Fennell’s Wuthering Heights from Warner Bros/MRC is eyeing $11M-$12M today (that includes Thursday’s previews of $3M) with a 4-day of $40M still a possibility at 3,682 theaters. As is standard with female-skewing titles, this Jacob Elordi-Margot Robbie movie could be frontloaded. The pic has seduced Imax, Dolby Cinema, drive-ins, dine-Ins and premium large-format theaters in regards to bookings, putting ticket upcharges in their favor.
Says ComScore Head of Marketplace Trends Paul Dergarabedian: “Ordinarily, having a holiday fall on the biggest moviegoing day of the week is a negative as most people are out doing something other than going to the movies, for instance on the Fourth of July. However, this year the planets have perfectly aligned to put Valentine’s Day on a Saturday, which makes for the perfect romantic night out. And with Wuthering Heights on the marquee, there could not be a better option.”
The pic’s social media reach, per RelishMix, stands at 381.2M across TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and X, which is 2½ times above romantic-drama genre norms. That figure is above It Ends with Us‘ 337.4M social media universe at opening weekend, Anyone but You‘s 98.8M and Saltburn‘s 213.9M (who knew that Fennell’s 2023 arthouse movie was that high?). Wuthering stars Robbie and Elordi are off the grid on social, while other cast members are fully activated, with Owen Cooper at 1.1M fans and Alison Oliver at 990K.
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Charli xcx is a big bullhorn for the motion picture, pushing the pic and her soundtrack to her 9M on Instagram, 5.4M on TikTok and 3.8M on X. She’s working off not just one Moment but two:
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Sony’s Goat at 3,863 sites is seeing $6M today (including $1M previews) with $24M in reach over Friday-to-Monday. If there’s one that could overindex, it’s this one since families have been a steady diet of Zootopia 2 since November, not even prioritizing Angel Studios’ David or Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: The Search for SquarePants. Social media universe also is good at 386.3M, 22% ahead of first-installment family animation genre norms across all social platforms. Goat’s SMU is higher at opening than The Bad Guys (212.8M) and Pixar’s Elemental (301.3M) and Elio (272.5M).
“Convo runs positive for Goat, with fans leaning hard into the animation swagger, music drops and character personality,” reports RelishMix. “There’s a clear appreciation for Sony’s kinetic house style, often framed as bolder and more playful than recent Disney output. Basketball-as-myth reads as knowingly absurd, which commenters treat as a feature not a bug. Comparisons to Spider-Verse, Surf’s Up, Zootopia and even Space Jam land less as copycat gripes and more as shorthand for tone and energy. The vibe is hype-forward, meme-ready and weirdly confident.”
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Amazon MGM Studios’ noir Crime 101, which has better reviews at 85% certified fresh than Wuthering Heights (65%) and Goat (79%), is eyeing $4M today (including $1M previews) for what’s looking like a $14M 4-day weekend at 3,161 locations.
Fourth and fifth place belong, respectively, to the third weekend of 20th Century Studios’ Send Help (near $10M over 4-days at 2,975 and $48M by EOD Monday), and Angel Studios’ Solo Mio second weekend with a 4-day of $7.3M, 11-day cume of $17.2M at 3,000 locations. Read the Send Help review here and the Solo Mio review here.
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PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: Warner Bros/MRC’s theatrical release of Oscar winner Emerald Fennell’s Wuthering Heights smooched $3 million from Thursday previews at 3,000 locations.
Before you comp the movie to the $7M previews for It Ends With Us (which opened to $50M), calm your jets. First, that was a summer release. Second, distribution sources are seeing a big pop for moviegoing on Saturday, Valentine’s Day, with a natural shift of foot traffic from last night to today, and into tomorrow. Let’s not forget the Monday Presidents Day holiday.
The last time Valentine’s Day fell on a Saturday was 11 years ago, when Fifty Shades of Grey opened to $93M over four days, with Kingsman: Secret Service in second place with $41M. I hear that there’s $14M in presales already for Wuthering Heights, which is eyeing $40M-$50M over the four-day holiday in North America. Reviews are fresh for Wuthering Heights, but at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes. It Ends With Us was 55% Rotten with critics, but 87% with moviegoers.
As we told you, Warner Bros scooped up rights to the Jacob Elordi-Margot Robbie feature take of the Emily Brontë novel for $80M, over Netflix’s $150M.
Elsewhere last night, Sony Pictures Animation’s GOAT did $1M in Thursday previews starting at 2 p.m. from 3030 locations. The film has earned PostTrak ratings of 5-stars for kids under 12, 4.5-stars from both parents and general. Sony sees $20M over four days, but the town believes the lack of family product in the marketplace could push the start of the Stephen Curry production higher. GOAT is 80% fresh with critics. Before P&A, its cost was between $80M-$90M+.
Meanwhile, Amazon MGM Studios’ Chris Hemsworth-Halle Berry-Mark Ruffalo-Barry Keoghan noir Crime 101 made $1M from overall previews, not just last night. The movie is hoping for a $15M four-day start. The Bart Layton-directed movie is 86% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. The production cost $90M before P&A, we understand. Remember, Amazon MGM doesn’t go theatrical unless it can make back marketing costs; that’s the rule of thumb on its productions. Comps are Den of Thieves: Pantera ($1.35M previews, $15M opening), A Working Man ($1.1M previews, $15.5M opening) and The Beekeeper ($2.4M previews, $16.5M 3-day).
No Rotten Tomatoes audience scores for all three films.
How the week went:
- Send Help (20th) 3,475 theaters, Wk $13M (-50%), Total $38.9M/Wk 2
- Solo Mio (Angel) 3,052 theaters, Wk $10.5M/Wk 1
- Iron Lung (Cent) 2,916 theaters, Wk $9.2M (-48%), Total $34M/Wk 2
- Dracula (Vert) 2,050 theaters, Wk $6.0M/Wk 1
- Zootopia 2 (Dis) 2,715 theaters, Wk $5.1M (-30%), Total $415.6M/Wk 11