Weekend predictions: GOAT slight favorite on post-Valentine’s weekend

Any one of three movies could top the box office chart this weekend. GOAT starts out the slight favorite, since it won’t take quite the hit ”Wuthering Heights” will on this post-Valentine’s Day weekend. I Can Only Imagine 2 could pull off a surprise victory, though.

Here’s a quick rundown of our model’s predictions this week…

First up, the baseline for I Can Only Imagine…

On paper, this looked like a good bet for number one this weekend, and it reportedly earned $1.8 million in “previews.” However, the vast majority of the preview earnings were on Valentine’s Day last weekend, with just $475,000 coming from yesterday’s screenings…

I’m fairly certain this movie will land somewhere between $6 million and $16 million this weekend, but the split nature of its previews makes for a very wide range. The model settles on $8.6 million. Something a little better than that certainly seems possible, but topping the chart looks like a long shot to me.

We don’t have preview numbers for How to Make a Killing, and the model thinks a little less than $2 million would be a good bet. Our audience tracking points to something higher (it’s currently top of our list of most-anticipated movies). $3.7 million seems optimistic to me, but this will be a good test of the pure star power of Glen Powell.

Finally, Psycho Killer isn’t expected to do great business this weekend, but its previews suggest it might crack the top 10.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

I think the model is being a little generous towards “Wuthering Heights”, and GOAT will probably take the weekend. However, there’s a wide range of uncertainty. For one thing, “Wuthering Heights” didn’t dominate Valentine’s Day weekend the way I expected it to, which could mean it won’t be as badly affected by this weekend not being Valentine’s Day weekend. One thing I can say with some confidence is that this won’t be a particularly busy weekend in theaters.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com