Weekend projections: Black Phone 2 exceeds expectations with $26.5-million opening

Black Phone 2 is headed for an opening around $26.5 million, according to Universal’s Sunday-morning estimate. That’s more than $5 million better than our model predicted on Friday morning, indicating good word of mouth for the film. Universal points to an 85%-positive audience rating for Black Phone, and expects it to run well throughout the Halloween season.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Black Phone 2’s debut is essentially the same as The Black Phone’s $23.6 million after adjusting for ticket price inflation over the past three years. Its price tag, at $30 million, is up quite a bit from the $18 million spent on its predecessor, but it should finish with between $150 million and $200 million worldwide, based on its $42 million global debut from 72 markets. That should make it comfortably profitable. Mexico is its top international territory, with a $4.3-million opening.

The rest of the top 10 looks a little weaker than expected, although Good Fortune should come close to its Friday-morning prediction, with $6.2 million expected as of this morning. That’s a disappointing result, with the minor consolation that the film is getting a good response from audiences. It could yet have a decent theatrical run over the next few weeks, but will most likely be best known in the long run as a home-market staple. Look for Lionsgate to give its video release a big marketing push over the Holidays.

After the Hunt is likewise landing close to its predicted number, and Truth & Treason will do OK business for Angel Studios.

Collectively, the top 10 are coming right in line with our prediction, with one major caveat: we had The Nightmare Before Christmas modeled as a “regular” re-release, when it is in fact just getting special screenings. That elevated our overall market prediction, and pointed towards an “up” weekend. In reality, we’ll be slightly down from last weekend, and from this weekend last year. Black Phone 2 has at least dug business a little out of the hole left by Tron: Ares.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com